Australia, The Complacent
A reply to recent articles and posts by HE Jose Ramos-Horta:
“How one island has resisted Chinese control – for now: East Timor’s unstable economic future could make it the next victim of China’s debt” – Allegra Mendelson, The Telegraph UK, 16 August 2025
“Australia cheating the Timorese? Again? We have options. Timor-Leste is Asian. China is Asian. Waiting them out. Australia’s Greater Sunrise Gas heist” – Rex Patrick, 16 August 2025
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There are two dilemmas discussed in these articles, and the Australian government’s actions lie at the centre of each.
I have always championed Timor-Leste as a country of immense opportunity, yet Australia is not investing enough in the country. Many Australian companies hesitate, citing infrastructure gaps, business comfort, and the often drawn-out TradeInvest approval process. There are undoubtedly blockages that could be rectified; it is a young country. But while Australian business and governments procrastinate, Chinese companies are seizing the first-mover advantage, working with the Timorese systems to establish a presence. I am sure many other countries will do the same while Australia sits on the sidelines.
But why bash China when they are putting money into a country where it is much needed, and in which they see opportunity? We should have faith in the Timor-Leste Government that it will manage vested influence.
The global reality is that nearly every major city in the world has a Chinatown. With around 20% of the world’s population and a strong diaspora (almost 6% of Australia’s population is of Chinese origin), Chinese businesses in Timor-Leste should not be seen as unusual. They are part of a global social and economic pattern. Fear-mongering and xenophobia towards China and its people have no place. What matters for Timor-Leste is creating an inclusive, level playing field for investment. If opportunities are open to all, investment will diversify, competition will flourish, and the Timorese people will benefit.
Australia openly criticises and accuses China of taking advantage of countries in the Asian region, but we happily accept its trade purchases and products to support our comfortable lifestyle. Surely our A$300+ billion in two-way annual trade demonstrates that it is a valuable partner deserving of respect.
Australian governments display a similar lack of insight, time and time again, towards Timor-Leste. Many DFAT staff have been largely ineffectual when it comes to our neighbour. Over several decades, our governments have done very little to foster goodwill with Timor-Leste, and yet we expect their loyalty and ear.
After 22 years in Timor-Leste, I have seen diplomats come and go, and I despair at the lost opportunities that Australia and Timor-Leste could have benefited from. Australia's approach needs to urgently shift.
Australia is a prosperous, stable nation at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, and the Australian Government should see this as our moment to lead strategically. We are well-placed to reap the rewards, yet we remain neither considered nor forward-looking. Instead of going slow on Timor-Leste on Greater Sunrise and Timor Sea resources, we should be working with them to expedite development. A productive relationship could also unlock other sectors with enormous potential, such as vocational education and establishing Timor-Leste as a regional manufacturing hub. Australia could also draw upon this skilled talent pool by supporting Timorese people to undertake roles in Australia in sectors experiencing critical skills shortages. The increased value of remittances being sent back to Timor-Leste would be an additional injection to the local economy. In times to come, Timorese diaspora remittances have the potential to be larger than the annual current budget of Timor-Leste.
For over two decades, I have watched Australia delay and engage in rhetoric while others move decisively. ASEAN countries are agile, and they will embrace Timor-Leste as a new sibling while Australia continues to stall. Viewed commercially, Timor-Leste presents Australia with clear opportunities: invest broadly, create jobs for a young population, and help build a new regional manufacturing hub while improving its soft power.
The Albanese Government has set an ambitious target to grow ASEAN trade to A$534 billion before 2040. Achieving this will require urgent country-specific economic strategies to be developed and implemented in partnership with business. If we are to be part of helping to build a financially and strategically secure region, we must work with respect, speed and genuine collaboration. Future generations of Australians and Timorese are counting on it.
Sakib Awan
Chair East Timor Trading Group